Monday, September 15, 2008

Analysts Lower Ad Projection - oops - but not search

Carol Krol wrote an excellent article in BtoB Magazine about the tough times ahead for the U.S. ad market. But this comes as no surprise to those of us tallying the ROI at the end of the day that the article goes on to say "internet advertising remains the one bright spot in the otherwise bleak picture".

"Emerging media ad spending - which includes search, social media, online video and mobile - will grow 29.5% this year to $14.9B, and 25.8% next year to $18.8B, according to MAGNA."

Some of this growth, I admit, is companies jumping on the trendy bandwagon and not necessarily paying attention to tracking through to sales, but much of the money is on search - and search is the deal closer.

MAGNA reports also said, "growth projections have been downgraded again for North America (from 3.7% to 3.5%)" and similar for Western Europe. They mention that global numbers have been adjusted upwards - suggesting that all companies who sell globally should be investing advertising dollars in countries like Argentina, Russia, China and Brazil.

ZenithOptimedia said, "it expects Internet Advertising to grow 26.7% this year and break the 10%-share barrier, a year earlier than its forecast 3 months ago". Wow, only 10% still. I would have thought we would see higher amounts than that. I expect for online businesses the numbers are much, much higher.

"U.S. advertisers have found that online reaches a very wide scale of customers for a relative bargain compared to TV and print", said Emily Riley, senior analyst at JupiterResearch. "We're not seeing TV money being taken away. That's still the dominant medium. As budgets grow, though, a larger percentage of new budgets will be dedicated to the Web."

David Hallerman, senior analyst at eMarketer, agreed. "It's where the audience is found," he said. "It's underdeveloped as a branding tool, and it's very strong and effective with direct response through search. The effectiveness of paid search is a large factor contributing to the growth".

Thank you Carol for putting some great statistics and forecasts in one article for us search marketers who are still trying to get clients to pay attention.

More information: Magna's Coen report July 8th, 2008

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